Labour Gaps
Key Facts
- Overall, the labour market is expected to be balanced over the next five years, but skills mismatches between workers and available jobs will likely lead to significant shortages in specific occupations.
- Significant shortages of workers are expected for those with no post-secondary training in education, business, management, marketing and related support services, and in health professions and related programs.
- Many occupations are expected to face labour shortages over the next five years, led by truck drivers, retail and wholesale trade managers and registered nurses.
This information can help government and industry make decisions for workforce planning and ensuring training programs are aligned with the needs of the labour market and can provide job seekers and students an idea of where the best opportunities for future employment may lie.
Overview
Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the next five years, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets.
On average, the supply of workers is expected to exceed labour demand by 1,600 over the next five years.
For each year of the forecasted period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is low, and therefore the labour market is expected to remain relatively balanced. However, this number only considers the number of workers available to fill the number of available jobs, and does not account for skills mismatches and other factors. It is expected that when only considering those workers that meet the skills needs of the available jobs, many occupations and industries will continue to face labour gaps over the next five years.
Labour Shortages by Classification of Instructional Programs
Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) is a standardized approach that classifies instructional programs in Manitoba according to field of study.
Using the results of the occupational outlook, labour demand by CIP is calculated using a cross-tabulation between the CIP and National Occupational Classification (NOC) categories. This process allows for different occupations to consist of different educational backgrounds, thereby enhancing the accuracy of the gap analysis. For example, construction managers can have different educational backgrounds, including a specific trade, or a management degree or certificate.
This cross-tabulation of occupations to educational categories allows for a comparison with Manitoba’s enrolment and graduation data to estimate the expected labour gap by CIP category. A positive gap means a shortage of workers while a negative gap means a surplus.
Educational fields with a large shortfall are not expected to produce a sufficient number of workers at current enrolment and graduation levels to meet Manitoba’s labour demand over the next five years. High-school students and job seekers may consider these fields when making career decisions, as job prospects are likely to be better than in fields that produce a surplus of graduates.
It is estimated that the greatest shortages of labour will occur in the following educational categories:
- No post-secondary (3,860)
- Business, management, marketing and related support services (770)
- Health professions and related programs (670)
- Education (480)
- Personal and culinary services (390)
- Mechanic and repair technology (320)
- Construction trades (270)
The following table provides the expected imbalances by educational category. It is important to note, when calculating projected labour gaps and/or labour surplus, the data does not distinguish between undergraduate and graduate programs nor the particular discipline within that instructional field. Data sources for this report were from results of the occupational outlook, labour demand by CIP and NOC categories. This cross-tabulation of occupations to educational categories allows for a comparison with Manitoba’s enrolment and graduation data to estimate the expected labour gap by CIP category. The instructional program data is intended to provide a high level snapshot and is not detailed enough to make conclusions specific to a certain discipline, this is especially true for disciplines with a small surplus or deficit. Furthermore, local intelligence regarding labour shortages should also be considered when determining the demand for specific occupations.
- Table 1: Expected imbalances by educational category (MS Excel file)
Occupations with the Highest Expected Shortages in each Major Occupation Group
The following tables list occupations in each group that are expected to face the highest shortfall of workers in each of the next five years. Government and businesses may want to consider how to best address these labour gaps, be it through retraining of existing workers, bringing additional workers in from out of province, creating additional programming at post-secondary institutions, or by looking to improve labour market attachments for underrepresented groups in the labour market. For job seekers, these occupations present good opportunities to find employment if they have the education and skills required.
- Table 2: List of 500 occupations in Manitoba, their expected future demand and labour gaps (MS Excel file)
| NOC 0: Management occupations | Annual Gap |
| 0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers | 295 |
| 0711 Construction managers | 76 |
| 0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers | 47 |
| 0632 Accommodation service managers | 44 |
| 0111 Financial managers | 40 |
| 0422 School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education | 40 |
| 0631 Restaurant and food service managers | 40 |
| 0423 Managers in social, community and correctional services | 38 |
| 0712 Home building and renovation managers | 37 |
| 0731 Managers in transportation | 35 |
| NOC 1: Business, finance and administration | Annual Gap |
| 1411 General office support workers | 178 |
| 1241 Administrative assistants | 143 |
| 1111 Financial auditors and accountants | 129 |
| 1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers | 117 |
| 1221 Administrative officers | 108 |
| 1431 Accounting and related clerks | 70 |
| 1414 Receptionists | 61 |
| 1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners | 59 |
| 1522 Storekeepers and partspersons | 46 |
| 1228 Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers | 44 |
| NOC 2: Natural and applied sciences and related occupations | Annual Gap |
| 2171 Information systems analysts and consultants | 28 |
| 2242 Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) | 25 |
| 2263 Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety | 19 |
| 2234 Construction estimators | 12 |
| 2264 Construction inspectors | 9 |
| 2281 Computer network technicians | 8 |
| 2123 Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists | 7 |
| 2225 Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists | 7 |
| 2252 Industrial designers | 6 |
| 2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers | 4 |
| NOC 3: Health occupations | Annual Gap |
| 3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses | 295 |
| 3111 Specialist physicians | 35 |
| 3233 Licensed practical nurses | 34 |
| 3413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates | 27 |
| 3414 Other assisting occupations in support of health services | 22 |
| 3112 General practitioners and family physicians | 21 |
| 3131 Pharmacists | 13 |
| 3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors | 11 |
| 3143 Occupational therapists | 11 |
| 3215 Medical radiation technologists | 11 |
| NOC 4: Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services | Annual Gap |
| 4413 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants | 265 |
| 4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers | 237 |
| 4214 Early childhood educators and assistants | 195 |
| 4031 Secondary school teachers | 128 |
| 4212 Social and community service workers | 95 |
| 4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Armed Forces | 83 |
| 4311 Police officers (except commissioned) | 72 |
| 4411 Home child care providers | 64 |
| 4152 Social workers | 55 |
| 4021 College and other vocational instructors | 51 |
| NOC 5: Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport | Annual Gap |
| 5254 Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness | 95 |
| 5133 Musicians and singers | 84 |
| 5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists | 47 |
| 5121 Authors and writers | 32 |
| 5131 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations | 27 |
| 5241 Graphic designers and illustrators | 20 |
| 5211 Library and public archive technicians | 20 |
| 5134 Dancers | 17 |
| 5135 Actors and comedians | 16 |
| 5226 Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts | 16 |
| NOC 6: Sales and service occupations | Annual Gap |
| 6341 Hairstylists and barbers | 199 |
| 6421 Retail salespersons | 182 |
| 6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents | 142 |
| 6231 Insurance agents and brokers | 111 |
| 6513 Food and beverage servers | 71 |
| 6322 Cooks | 69 |
| 6562 Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations | 60 |
| 6722 Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport | 48 |
| 6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations | 44 |
| 6742 Other service support occupations, n.e.c. | 43 |
| NOC 7: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations | Annual Gap |
| 7511 Transport truck drivers | 470 |
| 7321 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers | 199 |
| 7271 Carpenters | 134 |
| 7241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) | 118 |
| 7514 Delivery and courier service drivers | 117 |
| 7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers | 93 |
| 7251 Plumbers | 73 |
| 7205 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers | 56 |
| 7294 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) | 53 |
| 7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) | 52 |
| NOC 8: Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations | Annual Gap |
| 8612 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers | 76 |
| 8255 Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services | 17 |
| NOC 9: Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | Annual Gap |
| 9422 Plastics processing machine operators | 43 |
| 9535 Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors | 29 |
| 9537 Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors | 17 |
| 9615 Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing | 15 |
| 9533 Other wood products assemblers and inspectors | 13 |
| 9214 Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing | 13 |
| 9434 Other wood processing machine operators | 6 |
| 9431 Sawmill machine operators | 6 |
| 9524 Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing | 5 |
| 9423 Rubber processing machine operators and related workers | 5 |
